Predicted Grades

Predicted grades are a distinctive feature of the UK university admissions system. Since A-Level students apply to university through UCAS (Universities and Colleges Admissions Service) before sitting their final exams, universities rely on predicted grades to assess applicants and make conditional offers. Teachers are asked to predict the grade each student is likely to achieve based on their performance in class, mock exams, coursework, and overall trajectory.

The accuracy of predicted grades is a subject of ongoing debate. Research has consistently shown that teachers tend to over-predict grades: a significant proportion of students receive final grades lower than their predictions. This has led to discussions about post-qualification admissions (PQA), where university offers would be made after exam results are known. Despite these discussions, the predicted grades system remains in place, and students should take their predicted grades seriously as they directly influence university choices.

Predicted grades affect university applications in several ways. Students are advised to choose universities where their predicted grades meet or exceed the typical offer conditions. If a student's predicted grades are AAB, applying to courses that typically offer AAA represents an aspirational choice, while courses offering ABB provide a safer option. Most advisors recommend a balanced application with a mix of aspirational, realistic, and safe choices.

For international students following A-Levels or the IB, predicted grades function similarly in UCAS applications. IB predicted grades are particularly important because IB results are released after the UCAS cycle begins. Students can work with their teachers to ensure predictions are as accurate as possible by performing strongly in mock examinations and internal assessments, as these form the primary evidence base for teacher predictions.